After the Free-Money Era | What Fifteen Years ofNear Zero Interest Rates Left Behind
For fifteen years, money was almost free. That era is over — but it did not leave cleanly. It buried weak points across the financial system that only show themselves when interest rates rise, and some are still waiting to surface.
#FreeMoney, #InterestRates, #ZIRP, #FinancialStability, #BondMarket, #Macro
Global Bonds Between a Tightening Macro & an AI Supply Flood
Three shocks are hitting the bond market at once — a re-inflation regime that has turned every major central bank hawkish, an AI-capex issuance wave concentrated in a handful of names, and a fiscal repricing at the long end. Credit is priced as if none of them exists.
The dim sum / panda / kangaroo issuance records are the market routing around a congested USD/EUR core. Two forces overlap: cyclical crowding (hyperscalers absorbing core-market capacity) and structural reserve fragmentation (genuine Asian and diversifying demand). Portugal swapping dim-sum proceeds back to euros at a saving is the tell — diversification has crossed from vanity trade to treasury-desk default.
Read together, the funding-side internationalization of the renminbi, the reach for 40–100-year maturities, and the flight into Australian and offshore-yuan markets are all the same story: capital finding the path of least resistance when the traditional core is both expensive in duration terms and crowded with mega-supply. It is happening through the funding side, not the reserve side — which is exactly why it is under-covered.
#GlobalBonds, #FixedIncome, #Rates, #CreditSpreads, #Fed, #Warsh, #ECB, #BoJ, #AICapex, #Hyperscalers, #RMBInternationalization, #TermPremium, #Allocation
The Higher Floor - Is 5% Structural? Reading the Long Bond’s Fiscal Term Premium
The 30-year Treasury has spent its longest stretch above 5% since 2007. The question that matters for allocators is not the level but the composition — whether a permanently larger share of the long yield is now compensation for fiscal risk rather than a passing echo of restrictive policy. This note decomposes the long bond, sorts the structural from the cyclical, and lands on a house view.
#TreasuryYields, #TermPremium, #FiscalPolicy, #Duration, #SovereignDebt, #AssetAllocation, #Macro, #Rates