Polymarket’s Staged Wins & The Venue Premium

How a fabricated-virality disclosure reprices integrity risk across the prediction-market complex

A Wall Street Journal investigation finds that none of roughly $1.9m in bets shown across 1,105 promotional videos were real. Stripped of the marketing-scandal framing, this is a venue-integrity event — and it lands precisely as the regulated rail pulls decisively ahead of the offshore one. The next phase of the prediction-market race will not turn on whether creators can make the odds go viral. It will turn on which venue can show that the book underneath is cleaner than the campaign that sold it.

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