The Hurdle-Rate Order | How $100 Oil & a 5% Treasury Are Sorting Asia’s Capital | Fault Lines Series

Fault Lines | The Multipolar Order

The Hurdle-Rate Order | How $100 Oil & a 5% Treasury Are Sorting Asia’s Capital

A war in the Gulf has become Asia’s cost of capital, priced in Washington. Every Asian asset is now being re-scored against a 5%+ risk-free rate. Singapore shows what happens even to a haven when the hurdle rises; India shows what happens to a growth market that fails it on currency.

The fault line - In a multipolar order Asia was supposed to set more of its own prices. This autumn it is taking its discount rate from a Gulf war and a Federal Reserve it cannot influence. The markets that hold up are those whose plumbing, not their story, absorbs the shock.

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